منطقة إعلانية

منطقة إعلانية



منطقة إعلانية





البنوك تبحث عن «هبوط آمن» للفائدة خلال العام الحالى


مصرفيون: فائدة حسابات التوفير والودائع الأقرب للتراجع

على الرغم من إيجابية خفض الفائدة الاساسية لدى البنك المركزى، إلا أن البنوك قد تواجه ضغوطا جديدة على ربحيتها بعد هذا القرار، نظراً لتراجع الدخل من العائد خاصة فى حال توالى قرارات خفض الفائدة العام الحالى.
وقال عاكف المغربى نائب رئيس بنك مصر إن قرارات خفض الفائدة غالبا ما تؤثر سلبًا على ربحية البنوك، نتيجة تراجع هامش الربحية بذلك القرار، مشيرًا إلى أن تزامن خفض الفائدة على القروض وتوقعات تزايد الطلب عليها يقلص من تأثيرات الخفض على الربحية.
وأضاف أن النمو المرتقب نتيجة قرارات تراجع العائد ودفع الاستثمار بالضرورة سينعكس على البنوك وأدائها وهو ما سيرفع معدلات الربحية من ناحية أخرى، مشيراً إلى أن الوقت مطلوب لتلمس تأثيرات دفع النمو.
ومن جانبه قال محلل مالى بأحد البنوك إن خفض الفائدة سيخلق تحدياً جديداً على ربحية البنوك وعليها دعم الربحية من بند الاتعاب والعمولات لمواجهة تراجع هامش الأرباح، مشيرا إلى أن البنوك ستقوم بإعادة هيكلة مدخراتها للاستفادة منها على أكمل وجه فى ظل تغير تكلفة الأموال.
ووفقًا لبيانات البنك المركزى يمثل صافى الدخل من العائد %75 من إجمالى إيرادات النشاط بنهاية سبتمبر الماضى، وذلك يغطى الربع الأول للسنة المالية المنتهية للبنوك التى تختتم حساباتها فى يونيو، و9 أشهر من السنة المالية للبنوك المنتهية سنتها المالية فى ديسمبر.
وقال حمدى عزام، نائب رئيس بنك التنمية الصناعية، إن البنوك توسعت فى طرح الأوعية الادخارية ذات العائد المتغير لتتناسب مع تغيير قنوات توظيف السيولة المربوط عائدها بفائدة الكوريدور.
أوضح أن الشهادة متغيرة العائد تستوعب نسبة جيدة من مدخرات البنك يليها الحسابات الجارية والتوفير ذات التكلفة المنخفضة وذلك فى ظل أن الفائدة على التعاملات البينية للبنوك سواء مع ودائع البنك المركزى أو البنوك التجارية تكون مرتبطة بالكوريدور، وكذلك قروض الشركات.
وقال المدير المالى لأحد البنوك الخاصة، إن خفض الفائدة يضع ضغطاً إضافياً على البنوك، خاصة التى تنمو ودائعها بشكل كبير مثل البنوك العامة وذلك لأن العائد على توظيف السيولة فى ودائع البنك المركزى المربوطة فى الكوريدور والتى تستحوذ على نسبة كبيرة من الأصول تراجع.
أضاف أن العائد على الأصول الموظفة فى الأذون والسندات سينخفض نتيجة التعديلات الضريبية الجديدة، كما أن ثلثى محافظ الاقراض تراجع العائد عليها بعد تخفيض الكوريدور.
أوضح أن تلك المعايير مع استمرار نمو الأصول وحقوق الملكية ورؤوس الأموال للحفاظ على مؤشرات كفاية رأس المال واستقبال أموال المودعين تعنى تراجع العوائد على الأصول وحقوق الملكية.
وذكر أن الشهادات التى تجمع بين ثبات العائد لفترة معينة وارتباطه بالكوريدور بعد 6 أشهر أو عام من إصدار الشهادة وسيلة جيدة للحفاظ على تكلفة الأموال مع الحفاظ على تنافسية الوعاء الادخارى بين معدلات العائد السائد فى السوق.
وقال البنك المركزى، فى أحدث بياناته الشهرية، إن المركز المالى الإجمالى للبنوك تخطى 5 تريليونات و577 مليار جنيه فى نوفمبر الماضى، منها تريليون و300 مليار جنيه توظيفات لدى البنوك فى مصر، وتريليون 794 مليار جنيه أوراق مالية واستثمارات فى أذون وسندات الخزانة وتريليون 770 مليار جنيه محفظة قروض العملاء بينها تريليون و400 مليار جنيه جنيه قروض للشركات
والحكومة.
وقالت إسراء أحمد، محلل الاقتصاد الكلى والبنوك فى شعاع كابيتال، إن صافى هامش العائد سيظل عند ذروته فى البنوك خلال العام الحالى فى ظل كثافة الاكتتابات فى الأذون السندات منذ الربع الرابع من 2018.
أضافت أن البنوك التى ستستمر على هذا النهج سيكون لديها تباين بين معدلات ربحيتها التى ستتراجع بعد زيادة معدل الضريبة الفعلى وبين صافى الدخل من العائد الذى سيرتفع نتيجة زيادة الفائدة على الأوراق الحكومية.
وذكرت أن البنوك ستسعى لخفض فائض السيولة لديها ما يؤدى لتباطؤ نمو الودائع ويرفع معدلات التوظيف بالتبعية.
وأشارت إلى أن السيناريو الأكثر تفاؤلاً للبنوك هو خفض الفائدة بوتيرة أبطأ من المتوقع خلال 2019.
وقال طارق متولى، نائب رئيس بنك بلوم سابقًا، إن خفض الفائدة يضغط على صافى هامش الفائدة لحين تحقيق الأثر المرجو منه بارتفاع القروض تدريجيًا وبالتبعية الدخل من العائد.
أضاف أن معظم البنوك كان لديها خطة بديلة واختبارات ضغط وخطط لجميع الاحتمالات كما أنها ملتزمة بقواعد البنك المركزى لمواجهة التغير فى أسعار العائد والتى تضع فى حسبانها شقين توافق هيكل آجال محافظ الأصول والخصوم ومقدار الفائدة المدفوع على كل أجل.
وقال مدير الخزانة ﻷحد البنوك الخاصة، إن خفض الفائدة لم يكن متوقعًا لمعظم البنوك، والتى ركزت خلال الفترة الماضية على اكتتاباتها فى أذون الخزانة قصيرة الأجل، وقروض رأس المال العامل، والتعاملات البينية مع البنوك، لذلك ستركز خلال الفترة المقبلة على الاستثمارات الأطول أجلاً، والالتزامات الأقصر عبر الحسابات الجارية والتوفير.
أوضح أن البنوك تستثمر علاقتها مع الشركات للتعاقد مع موظفيها فى برامج «الباى رول» وهو ما يضمن السيولة منخفضة التكلفة مع التركيز على الودائع وحسابات التوفير قصيرة الأجل لتوفيق آجال استحقاق الأصول والخصوم بعدما بدأت بعض البنوك فى رفع الفوائد على الشهادات لجذب سيولة من شهادات الـ20% التى استعادها أصحابها.
وتوقع محللون صعوبة خفض البنوك الخاصة الفائدة على أوعيتها الادخارية خاصة الشهادات طويلة الأجل بعد إبقاء بنكى الأهلى ومصر على فائدة الشهادات الثلاثية والتى تعتبر الوعاء الأكثر شعبية.
وأشاروا إلى أن المنافسة وتراجع أسعار الفائدة بالبنوك الخاصة فعليا مقارنة بنظيرتها العامة يدفعها للابقاء على الفائدة عند المعدلات الحالية، فى حين أن مرونة تحريك الفائدة ستكون أكثر بالمنتجات الادخارية قصيرة الأجل كالودائع وحسابات التوفير.
وقال يحيى ابوالفتوح، إن الأهلى لم يغير أسعار العائد على الشهادات، نظرًا لقدرة البنك على استيعاب تكلفة الأموال، فى حين تم تعديل الفائدة على الشهادات متغيرة العائد والمربوطة بالكوريدور.
وكذلك أكد نائب رئيس بنك مصر، اعتزام البنك إعادة تسعير العائد على حسابات التوفير والودائع الأسبوع الحالى وفقا لتكلفة أموال البنك، مستبعدا أى خفض جديد على شهادات الادخار.
ويتحمل بذلك القرار أكبر بنكيين حكوميين ضغوطا جديدة على تكلفة أموالها خاصة مع الخفض التلقائى لفائدة قروض الشركات والتى تمثل نحو %80 من إجمالى القروض بشكل عام، كما أن استمرار الفائده على شهادات الادخار عند معدلاتها التى تتراوح بين 15 و%15.25 يصعب إمكانية خفض فائدة قروض الأفراد فى الوقت الحالى.
وقال محلل مالى بأحد بنوك الاستثمار، إن إبقاء أكبر بنكين على سعر فائدة وعاء الشهادات الذى يستحوذ على محفظة كبيرة من المدخرات يثير مخاوف من إمكانية ارتفاع العائد مره أخرى أو تحسبا لزيادات جديدة فى التضخم، خاصة أن الشهور المقبلة ستشهد استكمال برنامج الإصلاح وتحرير جديد لأسعار المحروقات.
وتدرس أغلب البنوك الأسبوع الحالى من خلال لجان السياسة النقدية بها إمكانية تحريك أسعار العائد منها التنمية الصناعية وبنك الشركة العربية المصرفية وبنك القاهرة وذلك تماشيا مع قرار البنك المركزى بخفض الفائدة لأول مرة منذ قرابة عام بنحو %1 لتسجل %15.75 للإيداع و%16.75 على الإقراض.

لمتابعة الاخبار اولا بأول اضغط للاشتراك فى النسخة الورقية او الالكترونية من جريدة البورصة

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