شهد الاقتصاد الأمريكي أكبر انكماش منذ عقود بين إبريل ويونيو في وقت تكافح فيه البلاد تداعيات عمليات الإغلاق بسبب كوفيد-19، مما يشير إلى عمق وشدة الركود الناجم عن الوباء، وفقا لتقرير نشرته وكالة “شينخوا” الرسمية.
وأفادت وزارة التجارة الأمريكية في تقرير حديث لها أن الاقتصاد الأمريكي انكمش بمعدل سنوي قدره 32.9% في الربع الثاني. وكان هذا أكبر انخفاض منذ أن بدأت الحكومة في الاحتفاظ بالسجلات في عام 1947.
وفي الربع الأول من عام 2020، تقلص الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي بمعدل سنوي قدره 5 في المائة.
وكتب جاي إتش بريسون، كبير الاقتصاديين في شركة “ويلز فارغو” للأوراق المالية في مذكرة، إن “تحليل البيانات يكشف ضعفا واسع النطاق في معظم مكونات الإنفاق، وهو الأمر الذي لم يكن مفاجئا بالنظر إلى أن الاقتصاد كان مغلقا على نحو بسيط أو كبير من منتصف مارس حتى منتصف مايو”.
وعكس الانخفاض في الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي الانخفاضات في نفقات الاستهلاك الشخصي، والصادرات، واستثمارات المخزون الخاصة، والاستثمار الثابت غير السكني، والاستثمار الثابت السكني، وإنفاق حكومات الولايات والحكومات المحلية والذي قابله جزئيا زيادة في إنفاق الحكومة الفيدرالية، وفقا لتقديرات “مقدمة” صادرة عن مكتب التحليل الاقتصادي التابع لوزارة التجارة.
وأشار جيسون فورمان، الأستاذ في جامعة هارفارد والمستشار الاقتصادي السابق للرئيس باراك أوباما، إلى أن إنفاق حكومات الولايات والحكومات المحلية انخفض بمعدل سنوي قدره 5.6% في الربع الثاني، والذي رأى أنه “لم يكن المساهم الأكبر في انخفاض الناتج المحلي الإجمالي، بل ربما كان الأقل لزوما”.
وقال فورمان على موقع تويتر “نأمل أن يكون هذا الربع السلبي الأخير الذي سنراه بالنسبة للناتج المحلي الإجمالي. نأمل أن يكون هذا الربع السلبي الأخير الذي سنراه بالنسبة للاستهلاك”، مضيفا “لكن في غياب إجراءات سريعة وجوهرية، فإن الانخفاض البالغة نسبته 5.6 في المائة (المعدل السنوي) في إنفاق حكومات الولايات والحكومات المحلية يمكن أن يكون مجرد البداية”.
في هذه الأثناء، لا يزال المشرعون الجمهوريون والديمقراطيون بعيدين عن التوصل إلى اتفاق بشأن حزمة إغاثة جديدة، مع بروز تقديم مساعدات مباشرة للولايات والمدن كواحدة من النقاط الشائكة في المفاوضات.
واقترح الديمقراطيون توفير مساعدات بقيمة تريليون دولار أمريكي لحكومات الولايات والحكومات المحلية المتعثرة في اقتراح الإغاثة الخاص بهم، الذي تقدر قيمته بـ3 تريليونات دولار وكشف النقاب عنه سابقا، في حين يعتزم الجمهوريون عدم تقديم أموال جديدة.
ومع توقف المفاوضات بشأن حزمة الإغاثة، أفادت وزارة العمل أمس الخميس أن عدد طلبات إعانات البطالة الأولية في الولايات المتحدة ارتفع إلى 1.43 مليون خلال الأسبوع الماضي وسط عودة ظهور لحالات الإصابة بكوفيد-19، عقب زيادة في الأسبوع السابق.
وقد قامت أكثر من 20 ولاية بالفعل بإيقاف جهود إعادة الفتح مؤقتا أو عكسها جزئيا وسط عودة مثيرة للقلق لحالات كوفيد-19، والتي، وفقا للمحللين، يمكن أن تقوض الانتعاش الاقتصادي الناشئ.
وتجاوزت حصيلة الوفيات الناجمة عن كوفيد-19 في جميع أنحاء البلاد عتبة 150 ألفا يوم الأربعاء، حيث سجلت تكساس وفلوريدا وكاليفورنيا رقما قياسيا في الوفيات اليومية. وحتى يوم الخميس، تم الإبلاغ عن أكثر من 4.4 مليون حالة في الولايات المتحدة، وهو ما يمثل حوالي ربع الحالات في جميع أنحاء العالم.
وفي حين تظهر البيانات الشهرية أن الاقتصاد انتعش ابتداء من مايو، قال بريسون إن المؤشرات الأسبوعية الأخيرة تشير إلى أن الاقتصاد “يفقد الزخم” مرة أخرى مع ارتفاع حالات كوفيد-19 في الأسابيع الأخيرة.
كما أشار مجلس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي أول أمس الأربعاء إلى أن مسار الاقتصاد سيعتمد بشكل كبير على مسار الفيروس.
وقال المجلس في بيان، بعد اختتام اجتماع السياسة الذي استمر يومين، إن “أزمة الصحة العامة المستمرة ستلقي بثقلها على النشاط الاقتصادي والتوظيف والتضخم على المدى القريب، وتشكل مخاطر كبيرة على التوقعات الاقتصادية على المدى المتوسط”.
المصدر: أ ش أ
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