منطقة إعلانية

منطقة إعلانية



منطقة إعلانية





فاينانشيال تايمز: الاتفاقية الآسيوية تذكير مهم بأن التجارة الحرة أفضل طريق للرخاء


فى الوقت الذى يتم التشكيك فى فوائد التجارة الحرة وارتفاع المخاوف من العولمة حول العالم، فإن توقيع اتفاقية تجارة عبر آسيا بمثابة لحظة رمزية.

ويشكل توقيع اتفاقية الشراكة الاقتصادية الشاملة الإقليمية علامة فارقة للتكامل الاقتصادى فى المنطقة، فهى تجمع 15 دولة تشكل معاً حوالى ثلث الناتج المحلى الإجمالى العالمي، وهى أول اتفاقية شراكة تضم الصين واليابان وكوريا الجنوبية معاً وتدفع آسيا خطوة للأمام نحو تحقيق كتلة تجارية منسجمة. 

والأمر الذى يعد مهماً بنفس القدر كذلك هو أن الاتفاقية تشير إلى مدى تضاءل نفوذ الولايات المتحدة فى المنطقة، وبدأ الرئيس دونالد ترامب فترة رئاسته بسحب الولايات المتحدة من الشراكة عبر المحيط الهادئ، وهو اتفاق كان ليقوى العلاقات الأمريكية مع 11 اقتصاداً إقليمياً آخر، وينهى ترامب حالياً رئاسته وهو يرى الصين توقع اتفاقية مع 14 دولة آسيوية مطلة على المحيط الهادئ.

وأوضح الرئيس المنتخب الديمقراطى، جو بايدن، أنه يعتزم حشد حلفاء أمريكا لمقاومة النفوذ العالمى المتزايد لبكين، ولكن يبرز توقيع اتفاقية الشراكة الاقتصادية الشاملة الإقليمية مدى صعوبة هذه المهمة.

ومن الجدير بالذكر، أنه رغم الأهمية الرمزية لاتفاقية الشراكة الاقتصادية الشاملة الإقليمية، فإنها ضحلة نسبياً، نظراً لأن الترتيبات التجارية على غرار القرن العشرين تركز فقط على خفض التعريفات بينما تتجنب بقدر كبير القضايا الأكثر تعقيداً مثل تدفق البيانات عبر الحدود والتجارة الإلكترونية والزراعة.

كما أنه من غير الواضح إذ كانت آليات فض النزاعات فى الاتفاقية سوف يكون لها تأثير قوى أم لا، وهو أمر بالغ الأهمية بالنظر إلى ميل الصين للتنمر على شركائها التجاريين نتيجة النزاعات السياسية، وتعانى أستراليا فى الوقت الحالى من هذا الأمر.

وعلاوة على ذلك، هناك طرق رئيسية يمكن من خلالها أن تعزز الاتفاقية وضع الصين الإقليمي، وأهمها هى الطريقة التى تحرر فيها وتوحد قواعد بلد المنشأ للمنتجات داخل الكتلة، ورغم أن ذلك سيساعد على بناء سلاسل توريد أكثر مرونة، فسيكون ذلك مفيداً للصين من عدة جوانب، بما فى ذلك إذا أرادت الولايات المتحدة مجددا استهداف البضائع الصينية بعقوبات، كما أن توحيد قواعد بلد المنشأ يمكن أن يقود إلى تقدم أوسع فيما يخص وضع المعايير من قبل المشرعين وهو ما سيكون له أثار ممتدة بخلاف الاتفاقية، حيث سيتعين على الشركات التجاريين الالتزام بهذه المعايير، وسوف يكون ذلك ممكناً فقط فى حال تعاونت الصين مع زملائها الأعضاء فى الاتفاقية بدلاً من محاولة فرض شروطها.

وتمثل هذه التطورات تحدياً لأهداف حكومة بايدن المعلنة والمتمثلة فى إعادة تأكيد الدور القيادى لأمريكا فى التجارة ومقاومتها لصعود الصين، ومن الناحية الدبلوماسية، سوف تكون الخطوة البديهية التى يجب أن تتخذها حكومة بايدن هى الانضمام لاتفاقية الشراكة عبر المحيط الهادى التقدمية والشاملة “CPTPP” التى كانت تعرف سابقا بـ”TPP”، والتى أعيد ترتيبها بحيث لا تشمل مشاركة الولايات المتحدة، ومثل هذه الخطوة يمكن أن يكون لها معنى من الجوانب الدبلوماسية والاقتصادية، ولكن قد تكون مستحيلة سياسيا فى الأجواء الأمريكية الحالية.

ويتعين على الهند التفكير فيما يتعين عليها عمله، ولدى حكومة مودى تطلعات لمحاكاة النمو الصناعى السريع للصين وأن تصعد كثانى قوى عظمى آسيوية فى القرن الجاري، ورغم ذلك، فقد رفضت الانضمام إلى اتفاقية الشراكة الاقتصادية الشاملة الإقليمية، خوفاً على صناعاتها الهندية الوليدة من أن تسحق من قبل الصادرات الصينية الرخيصة، ولكن يتعين على الهند الحذر من الانزلاق فى الميل للدفاع المتطلع للداخل فقط الذى أضر بالدولة بشدة فى الماضى.

وأياً ما كانت حدود اتفاقية الشراكة الاقتصادية الشاملة الإقليمية، فإنها بمثابة تذكير هام بأنه فى الوقت الذى أصبح فيه العالم الغربى أكثر تشكيكاً فى تحرير العلاقات الاقتصادية، فإن التجار الحرة هى أفضل طريق للمزيد من الرخاء.

افتتاحية صحيفة “فاينانشيال تايمز” البريطانية

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